Coastal area prone to extreme flood and erosion events induced by climate changes: Study case of Juqueriquere River Bar Navigation, Caraguatatuba (Sao Paulo State), Brazil

Abstract

According to the IPCC, the forecast for the year 2100 is an increasing of global average temperature, whose impacts in winds, waves, tides, currents and bathymetry will produce real risks of extreme events due to climate changes. Juqueriquere River is Sao Paulo State (Brazil) North Coastline major waterway. Due to minimum channel depths in the coastal bar, navigation is only possible for small leisure crafts and fishing boats and some cargo barges during higher tidal levels. This study case has been evaluated according to the relative sea level and wave climate scenarios forecasting, based on the meteorological recognition patterns of the last decades data for tides and waves. The impact of climate changes is obtained from this knowledge. The main goal of this paper is to have the initial conceptual description about the impacts on the bar navigation conditions of Juqueriquere to obtain guidelines for master nautical plans. © 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK. All rights reserved.